© Export Finance Australia
The views expressed in World Risk Developments represent those of Export Finance Australia at the time of publication and are subject to change. They do not represent the views of the Australian Government. The information in this report is published for general information only and does not comprise advice or a recommendation of any kind. While Export Finance Australia endeavours to ensure this information is accurate and current at the time of publication, Export Finance Australia makes no representation or warranty as to its reliability, accuracy or completeness. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Export Finance Australia will not be liable to you or any other person for any loss or damage suffered or incurred by any person arising from any act, or failure to act, on the basis of any information or opinions contained in this report.
World—Rapid critical minerals demand meets incremental supply
Critical minerals are often characterised by concentrated supply chains, geopolitical fragmentation, limited substitutes and rapidly changing demand that create prolonged surpluses and acute deficits across markets. Export controls and strategic competition have increased awareness of the specialised properties of smaller, niche strategic metals—including gallium, germanium, indium and tantalum—that make them difficult to substitute in advanced semiconductors, electronics, communications equipment and defence-related technologies. Increased emphasis on supply chain security, energy transition, AI-infrastructure and defence modernisation will be continued sources of rapid demand growth. This will create both opportunities and vulnerabilities across critical mineral supply chains.
The energy transition remains the largest source of long-term demand growth for energy-relevant minerals. The IEA projects demand from 2025 to 2035 to increase by 123-220% for lithium, 67 116% for graphite, 35-29% for magnet rare earths and 17-23% for copper (Chart). For several minerals, existing and announced supply is expected to fall short of projected demand, creating opportunities for competitive projects while increasing supply chain pressures.
The IEA projects global data centre electricity consumption will almost double between 2025 and 2030. Continued expansion of AI infrastructure is expected to increase demand for copper and the strategic metals used in electronics, servers and power systems. Faster growth in data centre deployment could intensify supply shortages, while weaker growth (such as from infrastructure or chipmaking bottlenecks) could leave production investments exposed.
Defence modernisation, procurement and strategic stockpiling are becoming increasingly prominent sources of demand for strategic metals. Although defence applications often represent small shares of consumption, strategic metal markets are typically small and concentrated, meaning modest increases in procurement can materially influence project economics and supply chain security. Rising defence spending and recent procurement initiatives for minerals such as scandium, germanium, tungsten and bismuth highlight growing efforts to secure supply.
